Historical Coverage Patterns of Blacks in the United States Census: An Application of Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Katherine M. Condon, U.S. Census Bureau

This paper builds on work that examined coverage patterns in a series of censuses from 1880 to 1950 for the White Native-born population by fitting a generalized linear model to predict population by 5-year age groups, census, and cohort (Condon, et al., 2008). In this research, the analysis will be extended to examine coverage patterns of Blacks by 5-year age groups, census and cohort for the period 1900 to 1950, using the same methodology. The population data will come from published census data for 1900 to 1950. Average relative rates of coverage and both the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and mean algebraic percent error (MALPE) will be estimated for the Black population. In addition, there will be a comparison of the results with those found with this method for the White Native-born population (1900-1950).