The Effect of Contraceptive-Confidence on First-Birth Timing in Post-Socialist Moldova

Mark J. Lyons-Amos, University of Southampton
Gabriele Durrant, University of Southampton
Sabu S. Padmadas, University of Southampton

This analysis examines the effect of contraceptive-confidence on the duration between marriage and first-birth, incorporating the effect of abortion. The paper discusses the case of Moldova, a country with a high abortion rate. Differential trends in first-birth timing by marriage cohort are also examined. Fertility behaviour in post-Socialist Moldova has undergone significant changes since 1991, with a trend toward later fertility. Data are taken from the 2005 Moldova DHS, selecting 5377 women nulliparous at marriage. A piecewise-constant-hazard-model is used to examine the effect of covariates on first-birth timing. Results show a contraceptive-confidence effect is operating; traditional-method users (low-confidence) having a longer interval between marriage and first-birth than modern-method users (high-confidence). Abortion use increases contraceptive-confidence and accelerates first-birth. The first-birth interval is longer among post-1991 marriage cohorts, reflecting delayed fertility in the post-Socialist era. However, first-births are recuperated and the probability of childlessness remains low across marriage cohorts.