Own Children Fertility Estimates for the Pacific Islands: Methodology and Comparisons

Michael Levin, Harvard University

This paper reports fertility estimates derived by applying the own-children method to census data for 18 Pacific Islands groups. Since each application of the own-children method provides fertility estimates for a 15-year period before the census (except in one case), the method provides overlapping trend estimates for island groups having at least two censuses. This overlap provides a basis for checking the consistency of the fertility estimates, and a broad picture of fertility levels and trends in the region over the past five decades. The own-children fertility estimates are compared with estimates based on vital registration or other sources when these are available. The estimates show general declines, often rapid declines, in all of the Pacific Islands countries and territories. The paper discusses results as they are affected by migration, economic development, and family planning programs in the various islands.