Spatial Analysis of Factors Associated with HIV Infection in Sub-Saharan Africa Using DHS

Muluye Desta, City University London
Monica A. Magadi, City University London

Much has been written about the depth and extended effect of HIV/AIDS on Sub-Saharan Africa’s societal fabric. However, with the availability of recent data and refined methodology of analysis, the continuity of HIV/AIDS research is essential for informed and organized engagement at the affected community level. This study uses ‘actual HIV infection data’ collected through a recent innovative approach alongside demographic and health surveys (DHS). It employs a Bayesian spatial method of analysis with Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulation technique to examine the cross-national variation of HIV infection in 20 sub-Saharan African countries. Results indicate that the spatial variation of HIV infection becomes noticeable when sexual behaviour factors:‘risky sexual engagement’, ‘premarital sex’, ‘multiple sexual partners’, ‘age at sexual activity’, and ‘marital status’ are controlled for in the spatial model. The results also revealed emerging regions in Western Africa moving toward mid-to-high range of HIV infection.