The Role of International Migration in Projecting Racial and Ethnic Diversity in the U.S. Population

Jennifer M. Ortman, U.S. Census Bureau
Christine E. Guarneri, Texas A&M University

International migration to and from the United States makes an important contribution to the racial and ethnic diversity of the nation. Using projections of the United States population produced by the U.S. Census Bureau, we examine the effects that different levels of international migration have on shaping the racial and ethnic composition over the next four decades. The Asian population is the most impacted by changes in migration levels with respect to size, age structure, and proportional representation. The Hispanic population is likewise influenced by migration, though their population trends are likely to persist even in the absence of migration. The level of international migration also affects the timing of the majority-minority crossover, the year in which the non-Hispanic White alone population becomes less than 50 percent of the total population.