Future Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy in Latin America and the Caribbean

Kenya V. Noronha, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Older people attaining age 60 after 1990 in Latin America and the Caribbean are survivors scarred by experiences dominated by heavy exposure to infectious diseases early in life. According to some theories these experiences could translate into higher susceptibility to adult chronic conditions and mortality. In this paper we test the conjecture that the improvements in longevity that began more seventy years ago may have also created conditions increasing the susceptibility to adult chronic diseases and mortality of those cohorts affected by the gains in survival. These effects could compromise future gains in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. To evaluate the conjecture we use data for Mexico and Puerto Rico. We conclude that, even if theories on which the conjecture rest are confirmed, it is unlikely that the passage through older ages of the affected cohorts will contribute significantly to levels of future life expectancy and healthy life expectancy.