Farm Dependence and Population Change in China: 1953 to 2005

Li Zhang, Virginia Commonwealth University

The existing literature has well documented a negative association between farm dependence and population change in Western countries. A number of theories have also been proposed to explain such an association. The applicability of those findings and theories, however, has rarely been tested in less developed countries, such as China. Using five waves of Chinese Census data and data from China Statistical Yearbooks, I investigate the association between farm dependence and population change in China at both the provincial and county levels. I also test the applicability of existing theories to the Chinese society. Findings show that high farm dependence does not necessarily lead to a lower population growth. The research reminds researchers to re-examine existing population theories when applying them to less developed countries.