The Fertility Response to September 11th

Matt Ruther, University of Pennsylvania

This study analyzes birth data from the five boroughs of New York City, as well as the surrounding region, to investigate whether a positive or negative fertility response occurred following the events of September 11th. The time-series regression and graphical analyses show statistically significant increases in the general fertility rate and crude birth rate in New York County (Manhattan) in the period directly following the 2001 World Trade Center bombing. Fertility in the other boroughs increased less dramatically. These positive fertility responses suggest that hope for the future, rather than uncertainty regarding the future, was more salient in the aftermath of 9/11.