Marriage Timing in Post-Transition Kazakhstan: Who is the Minority Group Now?

Elwood Carlson, Florida State University
Heather Griffis, Florida State University

Event history models using the nationally representative 1995 and 1999 Kazakhstan Demographic and Health Surveys investigate the transition to marriage among women between ages 15 and 49, comparing marriage timing for women who were of marriage age before the fall of the Soviet Union to that for women of marriage age during the dissolution period and independence. A double paradox is found for marriage timing in Kazakhstan. The post-transition cohort in Kazakhstan shows a trend opposite to that seen in some post-transition eastern European countries--women at risk of marriage during and after the transition marry earlier, not later, than women marrying before the transition. Across all education groups, Europeans marry the earliest regardless of cohort. Russified Kazakhs, most like Europeans linguistically, economically and culturally, nevertheless marry significantly later than either Europeans or other ethnic Kazakhs.