Estimation and Analysis of Child Mortality for Indian States Through a Bayesian Approach

Reetabrata Bhattacharyya, Indian Statistical Institute
Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, Indian Statistical Institute

The proportion of children dying up to four years of age is one of the important health indicators in terms of impacts of overall health and nutritional programs by Indian government. Probabilities of child deaths among Indian states are varying from 0.001 to 0.0288 according to NFHS –III (National Family Health Survey – III). Based on three rounds of national family health surveys and sample registration systems data in India, we have performed Bayesian analysis through which, we estimated posterior probabilities for all the major states. We also correlate these probabilities with socio economic status of Indian States. Interpretation based on Bayesian estimators justifies that there is a link between the socio economic indicators, mother’s education and age of the mother. Improving the age of the mother at the time of delivery in constructing prior probabilities has improved our understanding of posteriors.