Continuous Summary Measures for Changes in the Distribution of Ages at Death

Nadine Ouellette, Université de Montréal
Robert R. Bourbeau, Université de Montréal

Since the beginning of the twentieth century, remarkable changes have occurred in terms of distribution of ages at death in human populations. As some of today’s lowest mortality countries have completed their compression of mortality regime, the conditions they are now facing still remain uncertain. Recent studies have identified the shifting mortality scenario as a plausible successor, but deviations from this scenario have also been noticed. Based upon the premise that mortality change over age and over time is regular, we use a two-dimensional nonparametric smoothing approach to study recent modifications in the distribution of ages at death. Continuous summary measures such as the modal age at death function over time and associated variability indicator functions help us gain greater perspective on what should be expected in the coming years among low mortality countries. Data are taken from the Human Mortality Database.