Analysis on the Determinants of Divergence between Fertility Desire and Childbearing Behavior of Women in China

Jing Xu, Renmin University of China

This research examines the current status of low fertility level and displays the pattern of diverging trends between fertility desire and observed fertility level in China since the 1990’s. On the basis of nested database combined National Social Conditions and Public Opinion Polls on Fertility Desire in 2007 with socioeconomic indicators of counties, urban areas, county-level cities and Policy Fertility Rate in different cities of China, this research attempts to make an empirical analysis on the determinants of the divergence between fertility desire and childbearing behavior of women used Structural Equation Model (SEM) with AMOS software, which decomposing the multi-dimensional factors from the micro, maso and macro levels, i.e. socioeconomic condition, characteristics of community environment, family planning policy, contraception, abortion and other factors. This research also explores to quantify the effect on childbearing behavior by fertility desire and compare the effect between socioeconomic factor and family planning policy.