Population Momentum under Low Fertility in China: Trend, Impact and Implication

Zhuoyan Mao, National Research Institute for Family Planning of China

Since 1990s, China's TFR has been under replacement level for almost twenty years. It's estimated the driving force of the coming population growth in China will mainly be population growth momentum, which is the crucial consideration to stabilizing current fertility Policy by Chinese government. This paper calculates population momentum systematically, discusses population momentum’s impact on population dynamics and development, and policy implication under low fertility in China. By using the equations which have been resulted in previous research on the demographic determinants of population momentum, we estimate the total population momentum, the urban and rural population momentum and the age-specific population momentum, with collecting and calculating some important data, including the census data from 1953 to 2000, the 1% sample survey of population in 1995 and 2005. With the population projection methodology based on six simulation programs, we find the effect of population negative momentum on population dynamics in future