Shanghai’s Ultra-Low Fertility: The Future for Other Populations?

Wolfgang Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Stuart A. Basten, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Shanghai has recently reported a TFR of 0.6. This is for a population of some 20 million equivalent to that of Sweden, Finland and Norway combined - countries whose experience has been very influential in shaping our thinking about fertility. Despite recent attempts to shore up fertility rates, outcomes are incredibly unsure given the normalization of the one-child family. This paper will present a combination of an attempt to better understand the conditions of this unprecedented low level of fertility in a major population using qualitative and quantitative methodologies. This analysis will be set within the context of an extensive interdisciplinary literature review on the question: How low could fertility possibly fall?