Explanations for the Fertility Reversal after 2005 in Japan

Miho Iwasawa, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan
Kenji Kamata, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan
Ryuichi Kaneko, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

The major goal of this paper is to explore the explanations for the total fertility rate upturn in Japan after 2005. Following the view on the retreat from lowest-low fertility in European countries, we focus on elimination of tempo effects, inflation by immigrant women, economic improvement, policy effects on reconciliation of work and family life, and the contextual effects reflecting familistic attitude and welfare. Using weighted least squares models or weighted spatial error models, we estimate the influence of covariates on prefecture (state)-level TFR change from 2005 to 2008. According to the predicted values for national level increase, most of the increase was explained by increase in late fertility by the late thirties or forties, and increase in foreign mothers and decline in unemployment rates also pushed TFR upward. We will discuss the possible future trends and the importance of removing the barriers to maternal labor force participation.