Spatial and Temporal Changes in Fertility Behavior of Cohorts in Recent Times and Future Prospects: India

Samba Siva Rao Pasupuleti, Indian Statistical Institute
Prasanta Pathak, Indian Statistical Institute

In the present work we have attempted to study fertility experience of cohorts in different regions in India, who are crossing childbearing age in different calendar years in recent years i.e., 1993-2012 to understand the spatial and temporal changes in their fertility behavior. We have also forecasted fertility behavior of females who are going to cross childbearing age in various calendar years during 2013-2025. For the present study we have used selected portions of data from all the three National Family Health Surveys that were conducted in India. A special form of Gompertz curve, whose parameters are easy to interpret has been used for this study. Estimated CTFR for females who are going to cross childbearing age in 2024 in the South India, the West India, the North-East India, the North India, the East India and the Central India are 2.3, 2.8, 3.2, 3.3, 3.6 and 4.7 respectively.